WTA Bad Homburg has arrived and players are making their final grass-court preparations for Wimbledon.
I’ve found value on two of the matches on Monday’s order of play.
Read on for my best bets and previews.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Anastasia Potapova (-146) vs. Tatjana Maria (+120)
6 am ET
Anastasia Potapova is a former Wimbledon junior champion, but she as not played on grass yet this season.
Since showingcasing an impressive offensive arsenal in taking the Istanbul title earlier this season, Potapova has regressed and is just 5-5 since.
While Potapova had success on grass as a junior, she doesn’t have much experience on grass as a professional, with just a 6-5 record. In recent matches she has been fairly underpowered and she’s lost control when trying to ramp up the pace.
The Russian’s game doesn’t naturally suit the grass and she doesn’t have an excellent slice nor drop shot that can make up for the lack of controlled power.
Tatjana Maria made the quarterfinals of the WTA grass-court Challenger in Gaiba, falling in three sets to Diane Parry. Maria won 69% of her service points on the ultra-low bouncing Gaiba courts, but just couldn’t seem to get a read on the Parry serve. Maria only won 32% of her return points.
In contrast to Potapova, Maria has already played three grass-court tournaments, going 4-3. Overall in her career, the German is an impressive 50-25 on grass. She has played 64 more professional matches on the surface compared to Potapova.
Maria plays an extremely slice-oriented game, often slicing from both wings and trying to keep the ball low and out of opponents’ strike zones. She doesn’t have overwhelming power, however.
The German will be much more comfortable on the grass, having played more grass-court tennis this season and overall in her career. Potapova will struggle with Maria’s awkward slices and will find it difficult to attack against Maria’s game, especially given that she’s struggling with her groundstrokes at the moment.
In terms of Elo ratings, while Potapova has the higher overall Elo, and it’s no surprise that Maria has the higher grass-court Elo.
She should be able to drag Potapova around the court and make this a miserable experience for the Russian.
Pick: Maria ML (+120 via FanDuel)
Bianca Andreescu (-430) vs. Martina Trevisan (+310)
12 pm ET
Bianca Andreescu made the round of 16 in Berlin, but she fell just short of the quarterfinals in a 4-6, 6-2, 6-7(7) loss to Karolina Pliskova. Andreescu won 62% of her second-serve points and jumped all over the Pliskova second serve, winning 57% of her second-serve return points.
While it ultimately wasn’t enough, the pop on the Canadian’s groundstrokes combined her precision around the court were impressive. If Andreescu had gotten past Pliskova, she was a real contender to win Berlin.
Andreescu is 14-9 on grass as a professional, with her game translating well to the surface. She hits her spots on her serve, gets great power from both wings and has the variety to keep opponents off-balance.
In addition, she has excellent touch and moves the ball around the court nicely.
Martina Trevisan is 1-6 on grass in her career and never won a main-draw match on grass. Her only victory came in 2018 Wimbledon qualifying.
This season, Trevisan hasn’t played since injuring herself and losing 3-6, 1-6 to Coco Gauff in the semifinals of the French Open.
Trevisan played very well during the tail-end of the clay-court season, but her game does not easily adapt to grass.
Her heavy forehand sits up on grass and while she has a flat backhand, she is weak and inconsistent from this wing. In addition, Trevisan’s variety is not a strength.
Andreescu has the controlled aggression necessary to dominate from the baseline and make Trevisan uncomfortable, while the Italian doesn’t have anything in her game to hurt Andreescu on a grass court. Andreescu will target Trevisan’s weak backhand and take advantage of the loopiness on her forehand.
Andreescu’s overall Elo rating is 112 points better than Trevisan’s and her grass-court Elo is 151.2 points better than the Italian’s. Trevisan doesn’t have the power nor the court craft to make this match against Andreescu competitive.
Pick: Andreescu -4.5 games (-128 via FanDuel)