Toronto is the first WTA 1000 event of the North American hard-court swing and Monday’s order of play looks fantastic.
I’ve found betting value on two of the matches, including Jil Teichmann vs. Venus Williams.
I give my best bets and full breakdowns below!
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Jelena Ostapenko (-228) vs. Anhelina Kalinina (+181)
12:30 p.m. ET
Jelena Ostapenko hasn’t played singles since falling to Tatjana Maria in the round of 16 at Wimbledon.
However, Ostapenko will not be too disappointed to be back on hard courts. In her career, she has a 169-123 record on hard. This season, the Latvian is 14-6 on hard courts, which includes winning the WTA 500 title in Dubai.
While Ostapenko can struggle on serve – especially her second serve – she hits with extreme power from both the forehand and backhand wings. She can take the racquet out of her opponents’ hands as she hits massive groundstrokes precisely into small targets.
Because of this, Ostapenko does play with low margins which can come back to bite her.
Anehlina Kalinina will be looking to bounce back from her 1-6, 0-6 defeat to Coco Gauff on the hard courts of San Jose.
Kalinina only won 41% of her service points, getting broken five times in six service games. In addition, Kalinina only won 28% of her return points, failing to break Gauff’s serve.
She has a 128-82 record as a professional on hard courts, but Kalinina is just 5-6 on hard this season. The Ukrainian is very solid from the baseline and gets good depth on her groundstrokes.
She moves well and anticipates where the ball is going at a high level, getting a lot of balls back deep in the court. However, there are times when Kalinina’s lack of power becomes her Achilles heel.
Ostapenko should be able to dictate play against the more passive Kalinina. In addition, Kalinina does not have the aggressive mindset to effectively attack Ostapenko’s second serve.
The Latvian should push Kalinina well behind the baseline and dominate in rallies. This was the case in a recent meeting on the grass of Eastbourne in June, when Ostapenko won 74% of her first serves and 52% of her return points in a 6-3, 6-2 victory.
There’s nothing Kalinina can do to hurt Ostapenko and the Latvian should cruise to a win.
Pick: Ostapenko -3.5 Games (-125 via PointsBet)
Jil Teichmann (-589) vs. Venus Williams (+410)
8:30 p.m. ET
Teichmann solved 6-3, 3-6, 0-6 in San Jose qualifying to Elizabeth Mandlik. She only won 51% of her service points and was broken six times in the match. The Swiss only won 26% of her first-serve returns against Mandlik’s serve.
She does have an 89-85 record on hard courts in her career, although she’s just 8-9 on hard this season. Teichmann’s heavy lefty game is very tough for inconsistent opponents.
Teichmann is very precise with her groundstrokes – particularly her forehand – spreading the ball around the court and getting consistent depth on her shots. She is also able to pin right-handed opponents in their backhand corners effectively. However, the Swiss’ backhand can break down at times.
Venus Williams is playing her second singles match in 2022, having fallen 6-4, 1-6, 4-6 to Rebecca Marino on the hard courts of Washington. Williams won 71% of her first-serve points, although she only won 32% of her second serves. Williams also struggled on return, only winning 31% of her return points.
While Williams has won the US Open twice and boasts a 512-162 record on hard courts as a professional, she has regressed significantly. Her movement is poor, she’s inconsistent and struggles to put her groundstrokes into small targets. The American’s variety is also lacking at the moment.
It’s understandable, considering she is 42, but we have to be realistic with our expectations for the former star.
Having played one singles match this season, it’s hard for Williams to gain any sort of rhythm from the baseline. So, while she can catch fire for short periods, those periods don’t last for long.
Teichmann has not been at her best recently, but she has the game to give Williams fits. The American lacks consistency and Teichmann’s movement and consistent depth will extend rallies and lead to a boatload of unforced errors for Williams.
Her heavy, lefty, cross-court forehand into Williams’ backhand will be particularly effective, as she will take Williams out of her comfort zone and generate many unforced errors from the American.
Pick: Under 19.5 Games (-108 via PointsBet)