Chris Day is back with four tips for Saturday’s action at Newbury and Ripon, including three at double-figure prices.
Racing betting tips: Saturday August 13
1pt Grand Alliance in 2.30 Newbury @ 14/1 (General)
1pt Tinto in 2.50 Ripon @ 14/1 (Coral)
1pt Happy Romance in 3.35 Newbury @ 9/1 (Bet365 and Unibet)
1pt Double Or Bubble in 3.35 Newbury @ 10/1 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Unsurprisingly Goodwood’s Lennox Stakes, run over the same distance 18 days previously, has been a big pointer to Saturday’s BetVictor Hungerford Stakes and the third and fourth from that race, Pogo and Happy Power, renew rivalry this time over a flat, left-handed track . The former may once again have the edge in that battle.
Pogo’s been in the form of his life this year, following up his victory in Haydock’s John Of Gaunt Stakes with a similar performance in the Criterion at Newmarket, and he only gave best late on to a rejuvenated Sandrine and Kinross at Goodwood. Happy Power never really let him settle there and it could well be a similar story here.
Both have entries at York’s Ebor meeting next week so could presumably be re-routed there, but of the two Pogo is probably the more consistent and in better form so he’d be one to consider strongly if declared on Thursday.
Topweight Chindit has a penalty to carry here from his Ascot Summer Mile success but even that form doesn’t necessarily warrant conceding weight to the best of these, and he was put firmly in his place by Baaeed in Group One company last time.
There are good reasons to oppose a few of these. Jumby is a consistent handicapper who needs time to find his stride, admittedly at a high level, Misty Gray appears better on the all weather, Run To Freedom may be better over shorter, Primo Bacio is a perennial disappointment at whatever level she runs, Tiber Flow looks to have a few pounds to make up on form and Wings Of War is a doubtful stayer.
The three remaining runners can all be given chances, with the most relevant piece of three-year-old form surely Dubai Poet’s third in Royal Ascot’s Jersey Stakes.
Dropping back in trip there appeared to suit him and, if it’s confirmed that’s the case, he’ll be a threat to all receiving weight. However, he’s another who may want to race prominently and that could suit things up for a closer.
Richard Hannon’s Happy Romance runs this track well and her fifth here last time was well advertised in Group One company at the weekend with the winner and fourth going close at Deauville, while the runner-up was an impressive winner at the Curragh.
Happy Romance was hampered late on last time and looks worth chancing at current prices as does Chris Wall’s five-year-old mare Double Or Bubble.
Having taken the scalp of Garrus in Newmarket’s Abernant Stakes with Jumby and Run To Freedom in arrears, she’s faced Group One sprinters at Ascot and Newmarket on her last two runs and can be fancied to fare better in these calmer waters over a furlong further.
The Group Three on the card, the BetVictor Geoffrey Freer Stakes, looks a good chance for Charlie Appleby’s in-form Rebel’s Romance to complete the hat-trick and he’s the right favorite with the stable in excellent health.
From a value perspective, though, I think there’s mileage in Charlie Fellowes’ three-year-old Grand Alliancewho seemed unsuited to Goodwood after being slowly away and was the moral winner of Royal Ascot’s King Edward VII Stakes when hanging badly left and veering across the course.
To be beaten just a short head in the circumstances was a great effort with the winner, Changingoftheguard, already a Group Three winner who had previously finished fifth in the Derby.
On reflection, odds around 14/1 are too good to miss if he can be kept to the inside rail and produced late to negate his wayward tendencies.
Up at Ripon, the big sprint handicap is the William Hill Great St Wilfrid and race specialist Justanotherbottle and the Stewards’ Cup eyecatchers have been marked up as early favourites.
I really liked the run of Michael Dods’s Tinto at Goodwood where he only lost second late on. He won at this track in June and the stable has its sprinters in such great nick, so he looks the early choice at 14/1.
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