Horse racing tips: Best bets for Kensington with Ray Thomas


Daily Telegraph Racing Editor Ray Thomas gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Kensington.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

KENSINGTON

BEST BET

Race 5, No.7: LAURELIN

Godolphin mare Laurelin is summing up but her two recent trials have been impressive. Speedy mare and a first-up winner over 1100m on this track previously.

NEXT BET

Race 1, No.9: WAIKIKI

Waikiki had to cope with a very heavy track when making her debut on the Kenso two weeks ago and her effort to finish a close second was full of merit. She will be improved by the experience and should appreciate the firmer track conditions.

VALUE BET

Race 6, No.6: SPANGLER

Spangler was sent out favorite at his Australian debut, missed the kick slightly and had excuses when fifth over 1300m on this track two weeks ago. Stays at 1300m but drawn well and definitely worth another chance.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 3,6,9,11

Race 5: 2.7

Race 6: 4,5,6,10

Race 7: 1,4,5,7

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Champion jockey James McDonald has a full book of seven rides including favorites Waikiki (race 1), Pretes (race 4), Laurelin (race 5) and Strombus (race 6).

TRAINER TO FOLLOW

Chris Waller, Sydney’s reigning premier trainer, has a powerful presence in four races including Waikiki (race 1), Hameron (race 2) and Pretes (race 4).

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR KENSINGTON

RACE 1

Waikiki, a daughter of Golden Slipper winner Capitalist, ran a very competitive race on debut when a close second over 1100m on the Kensington track. The Chris Waller-trained filly was unwanted in the market that day, starting at $26, but she got through the heavy conditions well to be beaten less than a length. Champion jockey James McDonald takes over on Waikiki, she’s drawn to get the run of the race and is favorite in early betting. Perfect Thought is rated the main danger. A striking colt by So You Think, Perfect Thought ran well on debut at stakes level on Anzac Day and resumes here off two eye-catching trials. Victorine is fitter and worth another chance. A Lot More Love is another trialling well after showing promise in her debut race preparation.

Bet: Waikiki to win, watch betting moves for Perfect Thought

RACE 2

The improving track conditions (soft 5) give Air Of Alsace an opportunity to regain winning touch. The Jason Coyle-trained mare has been racing consistently despite slogging through heavy tracks in recent weeks and has a fitness edge over main rival Hameron. Air Of Alsace gives the impression 1550m will suit and looks hard to beat. Hameron is a promising horse summarizing but he did win his maiden on debut at 1600m in his debut race preparation. He has more upside than his rivals and just might be too good for these. Green Flash ran well behind noted wet-tracker Wild Chap when summarizing and is also better suited on the firmer track here. Cognac is coming back in trip but is racing well.

Bet: Air Of Alsace at the odds over Hameron

RACE 3

Auspicious Cloud is stoutly bred but US triple crown hero American Pharoah out of a Galileo mare and she enjoyed getting out to 2150m when romping home by a widening margin at Goulburn last start. This is obviously a tougher race but she is an emerging mare with staying potential. Decadent Tale is in a rich vein of form and apprentice Dylan Gibbons’ 3kg claim does reduce her handicap to a competitive weight of 59kg. Queenmaker was forced three-wide and had to make a long run at Wyong before a game second over 2000m. She is the value runner in this field. Boyszee struggled to see out the marathon 3600m when fourth at Bendigo last start but has been refreshed with five weeks between runs and is in the right stable.

Bet: Auspicious Cloud to win

RACE 4

The article has been improved by two runs from a spell and looks nicely placed. He tried hard in very heavy conditions when third on this track over 1300m last start and is racing like he is looking for 1550m now. In an open race, I’m leaning Essana’s way from the Tulloch Lodge duo Major Beel and Stonecoat. Both are lightly-raced, promising three-year-olds getting to 1550m quickly but they are bred to appreciate this trip. Pretes made a mess of her rivals to win her maiden at Doomben last start and has James McDonald in the saddle but she is well found in betting.

Bet: Box trifecta 3,6,9,11

RACE 5

Laurelin, a full sister to Group 1 winner Kementari, won her maiden on this track last year but the mare’s race career has been restricted to just four starts so far, finishing unplaced in her other three appearances. The Godolphin mare has ability and resumes here after two recent barrier trials where she has looked particularly sharp. Laurelin is primed for her return and finds herself in a winnable race. Sneaky Paige drops back from Saturday class where she tried hard for second to the talented Shades Of Rose at Rosehill. Drawn awkwardly but does get the benefit of Tyler Schiller’s 1.5kg claim. Twitch and Miss Jay Fox are each way chances.

Bet: Laureline to win

RACE 6

Spangler is a former English galloper who was sent out favorite for his Australian debut when fifth on the Kensington track over 1300m two weeks ago. The Kris Lees-trained gray was slow to start, got back in the field, had traffic problems at the top of the straight but still worked to the line well in very heavy conditions. Fitter now and definitely worth another chance particularly from his favorable barrier and with the 3kg claim for Dylan Gibbons. Aeecee Express was resuming after a very long spell and ran well for third at Warwick Farm. Promising gelding and will improve. Strombus ran a blinder first-up to beat all but Arbitration at Warwick Farm and he is right in the mix. Fastconi drops back to midweek grade and is suited here. He will be hitting the line strongly.

Bet: Spangler to win, Box trifecta 4,5,6,10

RACE 7

Psychiatrist is a promising young sprinter from the Gerald Ryan-Sterling Alexiou stable who showed ability last season. He was dominant winning first-up at Canterbury on a good track then had excuses his next two starts at stakes level. Psychiatrist resumes off an impressive trial effort at Warwick Farm and will go close. Stromboli, a full brother to Overreach and Standout, was spelled after winning his maiden at Ballarat last summer and the Team Hawkes-trained sprinter won a recent Rosehill trial stylishly, suggesting he will be hard to beat here. Turning is a tough type from the in-form Kim Waugh stable and is building a good race record. Diamond Diesel scored some wins at Gosford when resuming after a long spell.

Bet: Psychiatrist to win, saver on Diamond Diesel at odds

Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kensington

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