Florida State vs. Louisville odds, prediction: 2022 Week 3 college football picks by model on 50-41 run


The Florida State Seminoles are out to prove they are turning a corner when they visit the Louisville Cardinals for an ACC college football matchup Friday night. The Seminoles (2-0) have won just 10 of 23 games since Mike Norvell was hired as coach in 2020, but they have looked like a different team in the early going. Quarterback Jordan Travis has yet to show his true double-threat ability, but he aims to lead FSU to its first 3-0 start since 2015. It had the week off after a confidence-building 24-23 victory at LSU on Sept. 4. The Cardinals got off to a rocky start, losing 31-7 at Syracuse before rebounding with a 20-14 win at UCF last week. They will be eager for their first home game, and they will face a Seminoles team they have beaten four times in the past six meetings. FSU has dominated the all-time series, winning 17 of 23 meetings, but each team has won four since the Cardinals joined the ACC in 2014.

Kickoff is set for 7:30 pm ET at Cardinal Stadium. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Seminoles as a 3-point favorite in its latest Florida State vs. Louisville odds, and the Over/Under for total points scored is 57. Before making any Louisville vs. Florida State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,400 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters Week 3 of the 2022 college football season on a 50-41 run on all top-rated college football spreads and money-line picks that date back to 2021. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on FSU vs. Louisville and just revealed its picks and CFB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several college football odds and trends for Louisville vs. FSU:

  • Florida State vs. Louisville spread: Seminoles -3
  • Florida State vs. Louisville over/under: 57 points
  • Florida State vs. Louisville money line: Seminoles -150, Cardinals +126
  • FSU: Is 2-6 ATS as a favorite since coach Mike Norvell’s 2020 hiring.
  • LOU: Is 3-4 ATS as a home underdog under Scott Satterfield (since 2021)
  • Florida State vs. Louisville picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida State Seminoles

Why Florida State can cover

FSU comes in with plenty of rest and a lot of confidence. A blocked extra point on the final play at LSU saved the day after FSU nearly blew a 24-10 lead in the final nine minutes. But the offense looked dangerous throughout, with Travis throwing for 260 yards, and the junior is at his best when he is improvising. He has been sacked just once and has 42 rushing yards after putting up 520 on the ground in 2021. The FSU rushing attack has led the way, with Treshaun Ward, Trey Benson and Lawrance Toafili all contributing to a unit that averages 269 yards.

Ward has 176 yards at 5.9 per carry, while Benson (7.1) and Toafili (6.5) have combined for 230. Receiver Johnny Wilson is a matchup nightmare at 6-foot-7 and has 111 yards on four catches, while Mycah Pittman and Ontaria Wilson has seven catches apiece. Jared Verse (three sacks) will lead a defense focused on containing Cunningham, who has been sacked five times. FSU allows just 140 passing yards per game, and Louisville lacks proven receivers, so keeping the QB in check is paramount. FSU is 6-1 against the spread in its past seven Friday games.

Why Louisville can cover

Louisville dominated the 2020 meeting at home and also won 31-23 last season in Tallahassee. Cunningham accounted for 318 yards in the 2020 matchup and had 320 total yards and four TDs in last year’s game. The home team is 5-2 in the past seven meetings between these teams, and after a slow start, the Cardinals quarterback was back to normal last week. The senior threw for 195 yards and rushed for 121 in the win against the Golden Knights. Cunningham threw for 2,941 yards, rushed for 1,031 and accounted for 39 TDs last season.

Tiyon Evans, who transferred from Tennessee after rushing for 525 yards at 6.5 per carry last season, gives him a strong complement in the backfield. FSU’s only weakness on defense has appeared to be against the run, as it allows 4.6 yards per carry. Tight end Marshon Ford is a unique weapon and plays a big role in protecting Cunningham and making plays in the passing game. He led the team with 49 catches for 550 yards last season. Tyler Hudson leads the way this year with 11 catches. He was the 2021 ASUN Player of the Year for Central Arkansas.

How to make Louisville vs. FSU picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 59 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins FSU vs. Louisville? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.

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