Horse racing tips: Best bets for Forbes with Shayne O’Cass


Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Forbes.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

FORBES

BEST BET

Race 3, No.7: MIGHTY MINNIE

Placed six times from her 15 starts, trainer Mark Milton has found the perfect race for the Magic Albert mare to post a well-earned first win.

NEXT BEST

Race 4, No.8: ELLE EFFESS

Bjorn Baker-trained Savabeel mare who has been trialling like she would be hard to beat at the provincials let alone on the country circuit.

VALUE BET

Race 7, No.2: BALL OFF

Speedy Yass-trained galloper who ran his rivals off their feet to win a Gilgandra over 800m last start. Drawn 2 here.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 2.4

Race 6: 1,2,3,4

Race 7: 2.5

Race 8: 1.7

BEST EXOTIC

Exacta Race 7, No.1 to beat No.7

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

If all her rides show up on the day, Winona Costin could be James McDonald-like odds to win the TAB Jockeys Challenge.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR FORBES

RACE 1

Hadoukin, the close relative of Weekend Hussler, may well be saved for Hawkesbury on Thursday at a venue much closer to his Warwick Farm home. Form says he is better than these. Wunambal is a Dubbo housed gelding who has a pretty good CV That’s 11 starts for a win and four placings, here in New South Wales and Victoria before that. In fact, this son of Wandjina was once beaten a nose at Caulfield. Recent form is good too. Toostar has only won twice in her 26 starts, but we can probably attribute that poor conversion rate to her pattern. Amy Ekcels will find this easier than her Class 3 assignment first-up at Goulburn.

Bet: Hadoukin to win or if scratched Wunambal to win

RACE 2

Alloway was quite a handy three-year-old back in his day. So much so that he was runner-up in the Tasmanian Derby to Explosive Jack no less, he of course won the ATC Derby last year. Alloway has been with James Ponsonby for his last seven starts and they have mostly been really good to varying degrees. Of course, nothing he has done this prep equals his Wyong win reads terribly well for this race. Dragon’s Shadow beat Alloway home when they ran second and third respectively in the Tuncurry Cup on September 9. Has to go in on that basis alone. Sorokin is a lightly raced stayer who beat Vyner in a Wyong 2000m maiden in June.

Bet: Allowance to win

RACE 3

Mighty Minnie is trained at Mudgee by Mark Milton. The daughter of Magic Albert remains winless heading into Tuesday’s with 15 starts under her belt but to be fair to the horse, she has placed six times and quite frankly, she is one of those mare’s that you could say never really runs a bad race. Massive watch here on My Mirka. The Gerry Harvey bred mare is held in high regard by her astute trainer David Smith and while it is never an easy thing to win on debut, there is something more to this mare than meets the eye. Yorker has placed at 10 of 22 starts. Rust is very quick and has turned into a new and better horse at Wayne Martyn’s stable.

Bet: Mighty Minnie to win, My Mirka each-way, quinella 7.8

RACE 4

Elle Effess is a New Zealand-bred mare by the great Savabeel. Her fourth dam is Sanderae who did the Wakeful/VRC Oaks double in 1970. As for this Bjorn Baker-trained mare, she has raced four times thus far, her best result being a third at Orange where she made up plenty of ground late. Couldn’t be trialling any better coming into this race. Stablemate Lord Finland has kicked off his career with back to back placings at Bathurst and Goulburn after that. If he is going to run 1400m, it will be here given the 1200m, 1300m platform. Breeding buffs take note that the third dam is Merlene, his fourth one is Bold Promise. Angry Liam is still looking for his first win after 21 goes, but he is getting close to a breakthrough. Speaking of well-bred horses with a chance of winning; Appetite For Rish’s fourth dam is Emancipation.

Bet: Elle Effess to win or of scratched Lord Finland to win

RACE 5

Power Bank is a lightly-raced son of Deep Field. This Paul Theobald-trained gelding turned five on August 1 but has only recently tallied up his seven starts. In that time, Power Bank has won once, finished second twice and third on another occasion. Perhaps the most salient point to make is that his win came as recently as 14 days ago. Olympic Time is a Claire Lever-trained gelding summary. He probably wouldn’t have to go much above what he has done, say like two or three times in the past. Creates interest here. Pahang is a last start winner. Private Cheetah won on the Kensington track and was fifth to The Bopper in the Brian Crowley long ago. Needs to find that old form again.

Bet: Power Bank to win

RACE 6

Hell’s Fury is a big chance to be saved for Canterbury on Wednesday. Just one thing we would like to say about him, gee whiz he trialled well for a horse who ran eighth of nine in their Heat. Assuming he is scratched, it would open the door for a few of these others to step up. Chief among them is the aptly-named Boorowa Girl who was indeed born and raised at Newhaven Park in a paddock not far from her sire Xtravagant and her dam Gentle whose own mother, Allow, won the Queensland Oaks. Boorowa Girl is just simply in great form at the moment. The best Silver Scissors would be on the podium here. It was deadset bottomless at Cowra for her last start so let’s agree to forgive her for that one. Super Chance has a good strike rate for each-way players.

Bet: Hell’s Fury to win but if scratched Boorowa Girl to win and 1.3 quinella

RACE 7

Bold Offa, the horse from Yass, is very fast. Punters who took the $4 were never going anywhere except to the bar when this son of Bon Hoffa ran them off their legs to win that 800m race at Gilgandra on September 6. Don’t know much about the history of 800m races at Gilgandra but enough to know that 45.16s is quick. Barrier 2 is probably a blessing for Bold Offa but he still has to run that 1000m out. If he happened to get a stitch, the horse most likely to make him pay is Knight Diver. This Clint Lundholm-trained mare has raced eight times for three wins and two seconds and she was making up ground on Bold Offa when they met 14-days ago. Entreat, the Gayna Williams/Bucko mare, has raced 10 times for three wins and five placings. She could ambush these late if in the right mood.

Bet: Ball Offa to win

RACE 8

Emeriz is another good horse to wear the Atkinson colours. Granted he is not going to be the next Sniper’s Bullet but he is loaded with talent. Have no idea if the camp is thinking about a Highway with him or not, but he would most assuredly not be out of place in a 1000m Highway if there was one coming up. Whatever the case, you’ve got to like him a lot here. Sinaloa has been primed for a winning return to the races with two excellent trial wins at Warwick Farm and then Rosehill. Great draw. Ditto for Tiger King who has finally come up with a decent barrier to his thing. been going well this prep make no mistake. This is a good quality Class 2 if they all come but he can surely play a role.

Bet: Emeriz to win, quinella 1.7, exacta 1 to beat 7

.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published.